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Showing posts from 2015
Comprehensive weekly analysis For the period between Dec28 2015 – Jan 8 2016 Previous week: Well done for traders who did chose to short the GBP/AUD it had gained more than 300 pips in the previous week. Nothing is too much important you know it is the holidays J Next 2 weeks: Some economic data but don’t worry it will not affect the trend of the pairs. We should also expect the next month a high pick in volume because the stock market is so active in that month, also we should expect a high volatility due to the ECB rate decision, which could raise the rates. What trade I will take next 2 weeks: I will go on with my old 2 trades: Long AUD/JPY with TP: 92.10 Short GBP/AUD with tp: 1.9300
Comprehensive weekly analysis Dec. (21-26) 2015 What was on last week: Congratulations to traders who followed our trade previous week.  Shorting GBP/USD was the biggest USD pair mover on the market upon the Fed releases. The Fed release was irrational but expected for some reasons,  First: the Fed is afraid of letting the money moves out of the USA to other destinations. These destinations could be number 1 China which has continuous and consecutive raising GDPs and interest rates. Add to that the IMF had considered the renminbi one of the SDRs beginning from October 2016, which will be reflected for sure on the FOREX SCALE. The scale will disrupt, and the equation will be changed. Secondly, most of developed economies had a bulling GDP the last quarter.  The ECB is getting ready for the first raise from many years. Secondly, it is apparently that the USA wants to keep the oil prices at the bottom for political reasons. What will happen next week: Ne...
Weekly comprehensive analysis for the period from Dec.13 to 18, 2015 Previous week: We have seen a choppy market as usual week before the US Fed release, there is no much to say about the previous week. Current situation: Next week will be decisive week, not because we are waiting for the Fed interests’ releases, but because we are going to decide how the next week will look like. Both the Fed and the ECB nowadays are repeating the same words, in other words they are repeating the same mistakes. They insist to be hawkish and harry to involve in the big mistake and raise the interest rates. For me it is like giving berth a child before the ninth month. All fundamentals are referring towards that we still one or two years in order to pick up the rates, inflation is dropping GDP drops from 4.6 in January 2014 to 2.1 finally. On the other hand; Yellen and Draghi looks like they will they’re falling under the media or any anonymous pressures and they start to give illogical reason...
WEEKLY REPORT Dec, 7 to Dec 11, 2015 Previous week : it was very heavy busy week (Fed, ECB, OPEC), the results was excepted Yellen gave some hints that rates are not willing to raise, Mr. Draghi cuts rates and OPEC will not reduce productions. The EUR/USD lifted up after Yellen’s speech, the AUD pairs was affected for a short period then it returned to its rising way. The IMF adding the RMB to the SDR basket. What next: As it became obvious that the ECB, Fed and recently the RBA, agrees to put the prices in specific range in order to make the currency prices pushes the inflation instead of making the inflation pushes the currency prices, inflation no way to pushes higher next months, so what I the central banks trying to do is to make currencies overvalued with will lead to unjustified rising in products prices which will lead to their apparent success in putting the finance on the right track. It is irrational to find the Fed (on contrary to other central banks) is going to r...

Comprehensive weekly analysis Nov. 29, 2015

 This week as expected was volatile week as expected until the next Fed anouncement where we don’t expect any raise for the interest rate. The childish unethical announcements from both the ARB head and specially with was explicated from the ECB Mario Draghi, leads the markets to some volatility specially that the dollar was absent this period due to the thanksgiving. Any was the fundamental indicator MFI didn’t change and it leads to the same directions. From our opinion no important events happened the previous week, the US GDP gives no new. NEXT WEEK Next days will be very heavy weighted we have RBA interests and US non farms. Our strategy will remain the same with some cautious with AUSSIE trades, so if you didn’t open the aussie trades yet you should wait until Tuesday, not to wait the RBAs decision but inly to avoid the probable divergence that could happen if the RBA decided to cut the rates. It is not expected to see rate cute this time , despite that if it...

Comprehensive analysis for the upcoming week (Nov.22.2015 - Nov 29.2015)

Previous week: We have seen a consalidative week thus everybody was waiting for the Fed to raise the rates to break out USD buying rally. as we have seen the Fed didnt pull the trigger yet. Technically we can find the pairs stopping in resistant or supportive levelsthat add more fog to the vapor arising from the fundamental calender. Current stuition: It is not a secret that all central banks polucy is to reach 2% inflation so that they can raise the rates. If we looked for every country's data we will find the following; USA despite the enhanced employment situation, the CPI is 0.2, from 1.3 from the same tine in 2014, besides frustrating GDP, it will be a time wasting if we expected higher interests in december. EU has the same picture, dramatic drop in the unemployment which is the lowest since 2012, besidesHICP 0.1 compared to0.3 same time previous week. Same picture in the UK Japan Swiss and Canada only AUSSI can have a little bit higher than the others with 0.4 infl...