Weekly comprehensive analysis for the
period from Dec.13 to 18, 2015
Previous week:
We have seen a choppy market as usual week before the US Fed
release, there is no much to say about the previous week.
Current situation:
Next week will be decisive week, not because we are waiting
for the Fed interests’ releases, but because we are going to decide how the
next week will look like. Both the Fed and the ECB nowadays are repeating the
same words, in other words they are repeating the same mistakes. They insist to
be hawkish and harry to involve in the big mistake and raise the interest
rates. For me it is like giving berth a child before the ninth month. All fundamentals
are referring towards that we still one or two years in order to pick up the
rates, inflation is dropping GDP drops from 4.6 in January 2014 to 2.1 finally.
On the other hand; Yellen and Draghi looks like they will they’re falling under
the media or any anonymous pressures and they start to give illogical reasons for
the interest rate, as enhancement of employment and the dramatic drop in the fuel
prices
Next week strategy:
You know better…… yes exactly you are right we should quit the opening
trades as much as we can and wait tell Wednesday to hear the secret word, which
will decide buy USD or sell USD, but what pair should we talk?
If BUY
, I would choose to short the GBP/USD for two reasons , first
the MFI indicator refers to this pair as a
possible short trade. Secondly, the I can touch that the BOE policy is so clear
and explicit specially when they declared on November meeting that “the outlook for global growth has weakened,
signaling the central bank is in no rush to raise rates. “
If SELL
,I don’t advise to open a trade in that case because the market will be choppy
and giving false signals, but if you insist, I advise to long the EUR/USD pair,
since that there is an optimistic point of view illusions that the ECB will
raise rates next meeting (but take care don’t wait so long on that pair, just
take the first shot and try to get out during the Yellen meeting).
NOTICE: IF THE RAISE Is LESS THAN 25 BASIS POINTS BE PAITENT AND AVOID ENROLLING BECAUSE IT WILL BE VOLATILE
Keep the AUD/JPY long trade opened.
NOTICE: IF THE RAISE Is LESS THAN 25 BASIS POINTS BE PAITENT AND AVOID ENROLLING BECAUSE IT WILL BE VOLATILE
Keep the AUD/JPY long trade opened.
Good luck,,,,,,
markets-titan@financier.com
