Comprehensive weekly analysis
For the period between Jan18-22 2016
Previous
week:
Previous week we have seen some
events which didn’t come up with unexpected, BOE didn’t raise interest rates
for the reasons mentioned before. In addition to that we have achieved about
250 pips on our GBP/AUD trade WELL DONE!
Next week:
Next week we have some
heavy events. China GDP, Chinese events became a rising important events. Also
we have many CPI`s (UK, NZ, US), and the most important the ECB interest rate decision.
ECB is likely to raise the rates. It doesn’t sound logic since the previous
month it cuts the deposit facility rates 10bps. Meanwhile we begin to see some
changes in the tone
of the bespoken language as shifting the sights towards the core inflation
instead of the inflation in general. We also noticed that the Fed has raised
the rates, despite the fact that the inflation is very low, but he raise was
for other reasons like the fear of the capital movements offshore.
As a result, markets` volatility will be so high during the
next week due to the decision in prospect of the ECB. We are in the cross roads
now if the ECB decided to raise the rates this will lead to more volatility for
at lead a month from now, and it will be so hard to avoid it. In other words,
we will not be able to enter a long term trade.
My trades next week:
Next week the ECB`s
decision will be a pivot point. I must
have a plan, depending on weather if the Draghi will decide to raise the rates
or keep it as it is, or further cut (who knows!!), but I must have a temporary plane
for the next days at least.
1.
Avoid any kind of scalping or
short term trades, because it will be so volatile and unexpected.
2.
I am continuing on my previous
trade [shorting GBP/AUD TP: 1.9700 and SL: 2.1200].
However if my brother did not open the position from the previous week I would advise
him not to do before the ECB`s decision, because it will be so volatile.
3.
If the ECB decides to stay on
the previous rates or give more cuts! I will short EUR/JPY with TP: 127.30. For
the long term the GBP/USD will have a divergence, I will wait until I will a
reversal sign, to continue of my long term strategy.
4.
While, if the ECB decides to
raise the rates. I will avoid the EUR/USD, and I will long EUR/CAD for short
term, moreover; I will short the GBP/AUD as a long term strategy with TP:
1.9700.
I know it is a complicated week, but I wish you all
good luck and successful trading :)
www.marketstitan.com
info@marketstitan.com