WEEKLY GENIUS ANALYSIS
OCTOBER16th –OCTOBER21st, 2016
PREVIOUS WEEK:We didn’t see major events previous week. Previous week has seen week Chinese data as the negative trade balance which will lead to definite depreciation of CNY next period regardless the strong CPI. Also we have seen significant movements for the Euro – more about that little later. In addition to that there was consolidation in the American and Japanese stock markets, and a slit bullish movement I the UK market.
Next week:
May be when you here that on the next week ECB will decide the interest rates on Thursday naive get panicked, but the truth is that is the safest day on the month. Mr. Draghi stated in the last announcement that no changes on the plane will occur before March 2017.
Next week we have some other events; however, the sea waves will be quite and the wind will be good for sailing. NZ dairy milk auction and CPI will have some effects, but not will affect our trading. Tuesday UK and US CPI, which will have some shadows.
WELL, next week is a little bit foggy and it is not easy for 99% of people to tell you what to do in such a foggy weather, despite that fact our analysis can always guide you.
Most pairs are choppy, however, the MFI -our special indicator- is giving a good indication for the EUR/GBP add to that technical signals like the reversing star on the weekly chart and that has touched both the 78.6 falling trend resistance and the upper side for the Bollinger bands. To forecast its deterioration to the 61.8% level.
By looking to the MFI`s trading scale, we find that the EUR/USD a medium term consolidation forming perfect triangle in the 61.85 level. This triangle forms a strong probability for falling EURO on the medium term. On the other hand we can find that the GBP/JPY pair past week has formed a hanging man at no level which gives us an indication for short term retracement.
What will be my trade?
Remember next week is not volatile but a little bit fog in the dark;
Short EUR/GBP with TP: 0.8650 and SL:0.9150 [the trade is preferably to be closed before the ECB rate decision if it is so close, or at most before the week closing, and follow our twitter to know the updates].
Good luck for all and happy trading
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