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the period between November 20th – 25th, 2016

Weekly comprehensive analysis
For the period between November 20th – 25th, 2016

Previous week:
WELL done, our last trade gained 200pips till now. Previous week we saw how the dollar strengthened due to the Janet Yellen statement before the Joint economic committee. People interpreted Yallen`s statement by the optimistic and a strong signal towards rate hike in the next fed decision, and that is how markets interacts. Also some other people also expected that the hike is imminent due to the raise in USD index VIX.
          In our openion it is not that explicit. Yallen have said that the inflation prices raised in September 1-1/4  ……., BUT STILL BELOW THE FOMC`S PERCENT OBJECTIVE!!!!!
Also she said "……AND A RETURN OF INFLATION TO THE COMMITTEE`S 2 PERCENT OBJECTIVES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS". And the most powerful statement "…INCREASE IN THE TARGET RANGE HAD CONTINUED TO STRENGTEN AND THAT SUCH AN INCREASE COULD WELL BECOME APPROPRIATE SOON IF INCOMING DATA PROVIDE SOME FURHTER EVIDENCE OF CONTINUED PROGRESS TOWARD THE COMMITTEE`S OBJECTIVES. The question here is what the incoming data we are waiting for are? The answer is simple it is the CPI and the unemployment rates. From here to the next fed rate decision we are looking towards those numbers, they are going to be so pivotal.
On the other hand we have seen Mr. Draghi speaking before the European banking congress. The main important points given by him was; firstly; the rising GDP this year is relying the most on the domestic demand more than the foreign demand. Also he stated that the EA would need some time to recover. Those two points give us an indication that the ECB wont interfere the next days the markets to depreciate the currency.

Next week:
On November 21st Mr. Draghi si speaking. On Friday we have UK GDP but the most dangerous day is on Wednesday when the Fed releases its minutes to the previous meeting, AND remember our analysis previously J

What will be my trade next week?
I am going as the same previous trade (I made till now 200pips), but I will be cautious and try to close it before the FOMC meeting minutes release.
GBP/AUD long:   TP: 1.7330
                             SL: 1.6000

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